Match context

The upcoming match between New York City FC and Toronto FC is scheduled for 31.07.2026 23:30 in Major League Soccer. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
New York City FC are in position 5 with 25 points after 17 matches. The season record is 7 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 30 scored and 23 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWLDW. Toronto FC are in position 12 with 16 points after 17 matches. The season record is 3 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses. The goals record is 23 scored and 31 conceded. The stored form sequence is LDDLL.

Recent results

New York City FC recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWLLDWWLWL. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Toronto FC recorded 0 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDDLLLLDLD. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 2 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, New York City FC recorded 7 wins, there were 1 draws, and Toronto FC recorded 2 wins. The average total was 3.80 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as New York City FC or draw (1X) with 80% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 55.75%, 24.30% and 19.95%. The model momentum difference is 35.80 points in favour of New York City FC. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.17 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.34%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair New York City FC -0.25 / Toronto FC +0.25 supports New York City FC by an average 1.53 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365) with up to 41 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.22, score 79/100, 79.45% bucket win rate across 219 observations). Both Teams Score — Yes (odds 1.70).

What happened in the match

The match between New York City FC and Toronto FC ended 1-1. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.8 goals, while this match produced 2. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported New York City FC at -0.25. The stored market movement was 1.53 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-1, the line settled as a half loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.22. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was BTTS Yes at odds of 1.7. The actual market outcome was BTTS Yes. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 11 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.