Match context

The upcoming match between Houston Dynamo and Los Angeles Galaxy is scheduled for 16.08.2026 00:30 in Major League Soccer. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Houston Dynamo are in position 5 with 26 points after 17 matches. The season record is 9 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 25 scored and 24 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDDWL. Los Angeles Galaxy are in position 11 with 21 points after 19 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses. The goals record is 24 scored and 29 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLLDW.

Recent results

Houston Dynamo recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWDWWDDWL. The averages are 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Los Angeles Galaxy recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DDLLWDWLWD. The averages are 1 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Houston Dynamo recorded 3 wins, there were 4 draws, and Los Angeles Galaxy recorded 3 wins. The average total was 2.50 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Houston Dynamo or draw (1X) with 80% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 57.15%, 23.00% and 19.85%. The model momentum difference is 37.30 points in favour of Houston Dynamo. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.18 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.43%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Houston Dynamo -0.75 / Los Angeles Galaxy +0.75 supports Houston Dynamo by an average 2.50 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (Bet365) with up to 5 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2). Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.20, score 77/100, 77.47% bucket win rate across 435 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Houston Dynamo at home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 1.89 yellow cards, 0.44 red cards and 2.33 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 77.8%, 55.6%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 33.3%. Season card data is available for 17 of 17 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Los Angeles Galaxy away from home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 2.11 yellow cards, 0.11 red cards and 2.22 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 88.9%, 55.6%, 44.4%, 33.3% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 11.1%. Season card data is available for 19 of 19 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Houston Dynamo and Los Angeles Galaxy ended 1-0. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.5 goals, while this match produced 1. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Houston Dynamo at -0.75. The stored market movement was 2.5 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 1-0, the line settled as a half win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Odd. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.2. The actual market outcome was Under 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 12 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.