Match context

The upcoming match between Chicago Fire and Portland Timbers is scheduled for 16.08.2026 22:00 in Major League Soccer. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Chicago Fire are in position 4 with 26 points after 17 matches. The season record is 9 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 32 scored and 23 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLWWW. Portland Timbers are in position 10 with 21 points after 18 matches. The season record is 7 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses. The goals record is 33 scored and 33 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDWLL.

Recent results

Chicago Fire recorded 7 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWLLWWWL. The averages are 2 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals. Portland Timbers recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLWWWDWLLD. The averages are 2.30 goals scored and 1.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 90% of those matches, while 90% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Chicago Fire recorded 2 wins, there were 5 draws, and Portland Timbers recorded 3 wins. The average total was 3.10 goals per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 100%; Over 1.5 goals — 100%; Both teams to score — 90%; Over 2.5 goals — 90%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 60%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 10.40; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Chicago Fire to win with 61% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 60.99%, 21.01% and 18.01%. The model momentum difference is 42.98 points in favour of Chicago Fire. The input data quality score is 99/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.55 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.47%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Chicago Fire -0.5 / Portland Timbers +0.5 supports Portland Timbers by an average 1.32 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, Unibet) with up to 5 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 23, score 80/100, 80.17% group success rate across 605 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Chicago Fire at home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.11 red cards and 2.11 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 66.7%, 33.3%, 11.1% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 11.1%. Season card data is available for 16 of 16 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Portland Timbers away from home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 1.44 yellow cards, 0.11 red cards and 1.56 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 77.8%, 44.4%, 22.2%, 11.1% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 11.1%. Season card data is available for 18 of 18 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Chicago Fire and Portland Timbers ended 2-1. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 4 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.1 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 90%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 10.4 total corners. The match recorded 4 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 7.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 8.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Chicago Fire at home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0.11 red cards and 2.11 total cards per match. In this game, Chicago Fire received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.11 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 33.3% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 11.1%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Portland Timbers away from home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 1.44 yellow cards, 0.11 red cards and 1.56 total cards per match. In this game, Portland Timbers received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.44 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 22.2% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 11.1%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Portland Timbers at +0.5. The stored market movement was 1.32 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 2-1, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 23. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 15 verifiable pre-match indicators, 9 aligned with the final result and 6 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.