Match context

The upcoming match between Portland Timbers and Austin is scheduled for 30.08.2026 02:30 in Major League Soccer. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Portland Timbers are in position 9 with 28 points after 18 matches. The season record is 7 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses. The goals record is 33 scored and 33 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWLWW. Austin are in position 14 with 21 points after 18 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses. The goals record is 22 scored and 36 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWLLL.

Recent results

Portland Timbers recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWLWLWWWDW. The averages are 2.50 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 100% of those matches, while 90% finished with over 2.5 goals. Austin recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDWLDWWLLW. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Portland Timbers recorded 6 wins, there were 2 draws, and Austin recorded 2 wins. The average total was 2.20 goals per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 100%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Both teams to score — 80%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Portland Timbers to win with 61% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 60.68%, 22.00% and 17.32%. The model momentum difference is 43.36 points in favour of Portland Timbers. The input data quality score is 98/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.57 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -4.74%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Portland Timbers 0 / Austin 0 supports Portland Timbers by an average 2.12 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365) with up to 16 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2). At least one goal in the match (quota 21, score 85/100, 84.59% group success rate across 1071 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Portland Timbers at home is based on 10 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.10 red cards and 2.10 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 70.0%, 30.0%, 10.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 10.0%. Season card data is available for 21 of 21 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Austin away from home is based on 10 matches. The team averages 1.60 yellow cards, 0.10 red cards and 1.70 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 80.0%, 60.0%, 20.0%, 10.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 10.0%. Season card data is available for 20 of 20 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Portland Timbers and Austin ended 1-2. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.2 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Portland Timbers at home was based on 10 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0.1 red cards and 2.1 total cards per match. In this game, Portland Timbers received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.1 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 30% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 10%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Austin away from home was based on 10 matches, with averages of 1.6 yellow cards, 0.1 red cards and 1.7 total cards per match. In this game, Austin received 4 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 4 in total. That was 2.3 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 20% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 10%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Portland Timbers at 0. The stored market movement was 2.12 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-2, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Odd. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 21. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 11 verifiable pre-match indicators, 8 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.