Match context

The upcoming match between Philadelphia Union and CF Montreal is scheduled for 05.09.2026 23:30 in Major League Soccer. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Philadelphia Union are in position 13 with 21 points after 18 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses. The goals record is 25 scored and 33 conceded. The stored form sequence is DDWWW. CF Montreal are in position 14 with 21 points after 18 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses. The goals record is 24 scored and 35 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWDDL.

Recent results

Philadelphia Union recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDDWLWLWWW. The averages are 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. CF Montreal recorded 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLDWDDLLDW. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Philadelphia Union recorded 6 wins, there were 1 draws, and CF Montreal recorded 3 wins. The average total was 3.60 goals per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 100%; Both teams to score — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 8.90; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 94%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Philadelphia Union to win with 67% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 67.26%, 19.10% and 13.64%. The model momentum difference is 53.61 points in favour of Philadelphia Union. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.42 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -4.50%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Philadelphia Union 0 / CF Montreal 0 supports Philadelphia Union by an average 1.22 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365) with up to 3 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 21, score 85/100, 84.55% group success rate across 1126 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Philadelphia Union at home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.22 red cards and 2.22 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 77.8%, 55.6%, 55.6%, 22.2% and 11.1% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 22.2%. Season card data is available for 20 of 20 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for CF Montreal away from home is based on 10 matches. The team averages 2.20 yellow cards, 0.20 red cards and 2.40 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 90.0%, 70.0%, 50.0%, 20.0% and 10.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 20.0%. Season card data is available for 21 of 21 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Philadelphia Union and CF Montreal ended 2-0. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 7 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.6 goals, while this match produced 2. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 90%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 8.9 total corners. The match recorded 7 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 7.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 8.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 94%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Philadelphia Union at home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0.22 red cards and 2.22 total cards per match. In this game, Philadelphia Union received 4 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 4 in total. That was 1.78 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 55.6% of matches, 5+ in 11.1%, and a red card in 22.2%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for CF Montreal away from home was based on 10 matches, with averages of 2.2 yellow cards, 0.2 red cards and 2.4 total cards per match. In this game, CF Montreal received 4 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 4 in total. That was 1.6 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 10%, and a red card in 20%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Philadelphia Union at 0. The stored market movement was 1.22 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 2-0, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 21. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 15 verifiable pre-match indicators, 3 aligned with the final result and 12 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.