Match context

The upcoming match between Vancouver Whitecaps and St. Louis City is scheduled for 06.09.2026 02:30 in Major League Soccer. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Vancouver Whitecaps are in position 1 with 40 points after 17 matches. The season record is 10 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses. The goals record is 38 scored and 17 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLWDD. St. Louis City are in position 6 with 33 points after 18 matches. The season record is 7 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 24 scored and 24 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDWDW.

Recent results

Vancouver Whitecaps recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWWLWDLLDD. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. St. Louis City recorded 6 wins, 4 draws and 0 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWDWDWWWWD. The averages are 2.20 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 7 head-to-head matches, Vancouver Whitecaps recorded 4 wins, there were 2 draws, and St. Louis City recorded 1 wins. The average total was 3.43 goals per match. Both teams scored in 57.1% of those matches, while 71.4% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 50%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Vancouver Whitecaps to win with 66% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 65.70%, 19.05% and 15.24%. The model momentum difference is 50.46 points in favour of Vancouver Whitecaps. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.45 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -4.73%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Vancouver Whitecaps 0 / St. Louis City 0 supports St. Louis City by an average 1.31 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365) with up to 3 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Vancouver Whitecaps at home is based on 10 matches. The team averages 1.10 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.10 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 10.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 20 of 20 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for St. Louis City away from home is based on 10 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.20 red cards and 2.20 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 80.0%, 50.0%, 30.0%, 20.0% and 20.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 20.0%. Season card data is available for 21 of 21 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Vancouver Whitecaps and St. Louis City ended 1-3. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 4 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 7 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.43 goals, while this match produced 4. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 7 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 57.1%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 7 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 71.4%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Vancouver Whitecaps at home was based on 10 matches, with averages of 1.1 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.1 total cards per match. In this game, Vancouver Whitecaps received 4 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 4 in total. That was 2.9 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for St. Louis City away from home was based on 10 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0.2 red cards and 2.2 total cards per match. In this game, St. Louis City received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.8 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 30% of matches, 5+ in 20%, and a red card in 20%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported St. Louis City at 0. The stored market movement was 1.31 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-3, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.