Match context

The upcoming match between Los Angeles FC and New York Red Bulls is scheduled for 10.09.2026 02:30 in Major League Soccer. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Los Angeles FC are in position 3 with 35 points after 19 matches. The season record is 10 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 35 scored and 19 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLLDW. New York Red Bulls are in position 8 with 26 points after 18 matches. The season record is 7 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses. The goals record is 29 scored and 39 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLLWL.

Recent results

Los Angeles FC recorded 2 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DDDLLDWDDW. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 20% finished with over 2.5 goals. New York Red Bulls recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLDLLWLLWD. The averages are 1 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 4 head-to-head matches, Los Angeles FC recorded 2 wins, there were 1 draws, and New York Red Bulls recorded 1 wins. The average total was 3.75 goals per match. Both teams scored in 75% of those matches, while 75% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Under 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%; Over 1.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Los Angeles FC to win with 68% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 67.57%, 18.92% and 13.51%. The model momentum difference is 54.05 points in favour of Los Angeles FC. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.40 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.41%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 23, score 80/100, 79.61% group success rate across 711 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Los Angeles FC at home is based on 11 matches. The team averages 1.55 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.55 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 63.6%, 54.5%, 18.2%, 18.2% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 23 of 23 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for New York Red Bulls away from home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 2.44 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.44 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 44.4%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 20 of 20 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Los Angeles FC and New York Red Bulls ended 2-0. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 4 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.75 goals, while this match produced 2. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 4 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 75%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 4 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 75%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Los Angeles FC at home was based on 11 matches, with averages of 1.55 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.55 total cards per match. In this game, Los Angeles FC received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.45 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 18.2% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for New York Red Bulls away from home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 2.44 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.44 total cards per match. In this game, New York Red Bulls received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.44 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 44.4% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 23. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.