Match context

The upcoming match between Flamengo and Mirassol is scheduled for 02.09.2026 22:30 in Serie A. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Flamengo are in position 2 with 48 points after 20 matches. The season record is 11 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses. The goals record is 37 scored and 18 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLWWD. Mirassol are in position 16 with 25 points after 20 matches. The season record is 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses. The goals record is 23 scored and 27 conceded. The stored form sequence is DDLLW.

Recent results

Flamengo recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLWWDWDDWW. The averages are 2.40 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Mirassol recorded 1 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DDDLDLLDWD. The averages are 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 3 head-to-head matches, Flamengo recorded 2 wins, there were 1 draws, and Mirassol recorded 0 wins. The average total was 5 goals per match. Both teams scored in 100% of those matches, while 100% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Both teams to score — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 9.20; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 97%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Flamengo to win with 78% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 78.31%, 14.46% and 7.23%. The model momentum difference is 71.08 points in favour of Flamengo. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.20 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.02%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.20, score 80/100, 80.36% bucket win rate across 555 observations). At least one goal in the match (quota 15, score 80/100, 80.23% group success rate across 2904 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Flamengo at home is based on 8 matches. The team averages 1.88 yellow cards, 0.13 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 75.0%, 50.0%, 37.5%, 12.5% and 12.5% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 12.5%. Season card data is available for 18 of 18 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Mirassol away from home is based on 8 matches. The team averages 2.38 yellow cards, 0.13 red cards and 2.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 75.0%, 50.0%, 25.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 12.5%. Season card data is available for 17 of 18 completed matches (94.4% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Flamengo and Mirassol ended 2-0. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 16 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 3 head-to-head meetings averaged 5 goals, while this match produced 2. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 100%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 100%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 9.2 total corners. The match recorded 16 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 97%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Flamengo at home was based on 8 matches, with averages of 1.88 yellow cards, 0.13 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, Flamengo received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 2 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 37.5% of matches, 5+ in 12.5%, and a red card in 12.5%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Mirassol away from home was based on 8 matches, with averages of 2.38 yellow cards, 0.13 red cards and 2.5 total cards per match. In this game, Mirassol received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.5 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 12.5%.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.2. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 15. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 14 verifiable pre-match indicators, 8 aligned with the final result and 6 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.