Match context

The upcoming match between Cruzeiro and Mirassol is scheduled for 09.08.2026 14:00 in Serie A. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Cruzeiro are in position 7 with 30 points after 21 matches. The season record is 8 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses. The goals record is 27 scored and 30 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLWDW. Mirassol are in position 14 with 23 points after 20 matches. The season record is 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses. The goals record is 23 scored and 27 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDWLW.

Recent results

Cruzeiro recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDWLWWDWWD. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. Mirassol recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDWDWLLWWL. The averages are 1 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 3 head-to-head matches, Cruzeiro recorded 1 wins, there were 2 draws, and Mirassol recorded 0 wins. The average total was 3 goals per match. Both teams scored in 100% of those matches, while 66.7% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 9.90; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Cruzeiro or draw (1X) with 83% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 55.72%, 27.06% and 17.22%. The model momentum difference is 38.50 points in favour of Cruzeiro. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.14 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.63%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Cruzeiro -0.5 / Mirassol +0.5 supports Mirassol by an average 2.30 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (Bet365) with up to 3 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

What happened in the match

The match between Cruzeiro and Mirassol ended 3-1. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 3 head-to-head meetings averaged 3 goals, while this match produced 4. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 100%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Mirassol at +0.5. The stored market movement was 2.3 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 3-1, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.