Match context

The upcoming match between Flamengo and Vitoria is scheduled for 09.08.2026 22:30 in Serie A. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Flamengo are in position 2 with 39 points after 20 matches. The season record is 11 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses. The goals record is 37 scored and 18 conceded. The stored form sequence is DDWWL. Vitoria are in position 13 with 26 points after 21 matches. The season record is 7 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses. The goals record is 22 scored and 31 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLDWL.

Recent results

Flamengo recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DDWWWLDWWL. The averages are 2 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. Vitoria recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLLLDWWWLW. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Flamengo recorded 7 wins, there were 2 draws, and Vitoria recorded 1 wins. The average total was 3.40 goals per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 40%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 10.10; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Flamengo to win with 77% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 77.09%, 15.68% and 7.23%. The model momentum difference is 69.86 points in favour of Flamengo. The input data quality score is 97/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.22 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.95%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.20, score 76/100, 76.44% bucket win rate across 382 observations).

What happened in the match

The match between Flamengo and Vitoria ended 2-0. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.4 goals, while this match produced 2. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.2. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.