Match context

The upcoming match between Sao Paulo and Coritiba is scheduled for 16.08.2026 00:00 in Serie A. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Sao Paulo are in position 12 with 26 points after 20 matches. The season record is 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses. The goals record is 25 scored and 23 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLLDL. Coritiba are in position 11 with 27 points after 21 matches. The season record is 7 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses. The goals record is 25 scored and 28 conceded. The stored form sequence is LDLLW.

Recent results

Sao Paulo recorded 1 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLDLLWDDLL. The averages are 1 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Coritiba recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLDLLWWLDL. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Sao Paulo recorded 4 wins, there were 5 draws, and Coritiba recorded 1 wins. The average total was 2.20 goals per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Sao Paulo or draw (1X) with 83% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 54.84%, 27.91% and 17.25%. The model momentum difference is 37.59 points in favour of Sao Paulo. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.17 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -3.18%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Sao Paulo -0.25 / Coritiba +0.25 supports Sao Paulo by an average 1.47 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 13 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2.02).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Sao Paulo at home is based on 8 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 75.0%, 62.5%, 37.5%, 25.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 14 of 15 completed matches (93.3% coverage). The discipline profile for Coritiba away from home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 1.89 yellow cards, 0.56 red cards and 2.44 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 88.9%, 33.3%, 22.2% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 44.4%. Season card data is available for 15 of 16 completed matches (93.8% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Sao Paulo and Coritiba ended 1-1. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.2 goals, while this match produced 2. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Sao Paulo at home was based on 8 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, Sao Paulo received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. The total was effectively equal to the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 37.5% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Coritiba away from home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 1.89 yellow cards, 0.56 red cards and 2.44 total cards per match. In this game, Coritiba received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.44 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 33.3% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 44.4%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Sao Paulo at -0.25. The stored market movement was 1.47 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-1, the line settled as a half loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2.02. The actual market outcome was Even. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.