Match context

The upcoming match between RB Bragantino and Gremio is scheduled for 23.08.2026 19:00 in Serie A. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
RB Bragantino are in position 6 with 31 points after 20 matches. The season record is 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses. The goals record is 26 scored and 20 conceded. The stored form sequence is DDWWW. Gremio are in position 17 with 22 points after 20 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses. The goals record is 22 scored and 26 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLLWD.

Recent results

RB Bragantino recorded 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DDLLWDDDWW. The averages are 1 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. Gremio recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWWDLDLLLD. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, RB Bragantino recorded 5 wins, there were 3 draws, and Gremio recorded 2 wins. The average total was 2.30 goals per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 100%; Under 2.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 50%; Over 1.5 goals — 50%; Both teams to score — 30%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 9.38; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 99%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as RB Bragantino or draw (1X) with 83% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 59.59%, 23.83% and 16.58%. The model momentum difference is 43.01 points in favour of RB Bragantino. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.14 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -4.90%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair RB Bragantino -0.25 / Gremio +0.25 supports RB Bragantino by an average 3.97 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 30 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 1.90).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for RB Bragantino at home is based on 8 matches. The team averages 2.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 75.0%, 50.0%, 25.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 15 of 16 completed matches (93.8% coverage). The discipline profile for Gremio away from home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 3.00 yellow cards, 0.29 red cards and 3.29 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 85.7%, 85.7%, 28.6% and 28.6% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 28.6%. Season card data is available for 16 of 16 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between RB Bragantino and Gremio ended 1-0. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 10 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.3 goals, while this match produced 1. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 9.38 total corners. The match recorded 10 corners in total. The result remained within one corner of the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 99%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for RB Bragantino at home was based on 8 matches, with averages of 2.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.5 total cards per match. In this game, RB Bragantino received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.5 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Gremio away from home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 3 yellow cards, 0.29 red cards and 3.29 total cards per match. In this game, Gremio received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.29 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 85.7% of matches, 5+ in 28.6%, and a red card in 28.6%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported RB Bragantino at -0.25. The stored market movement was 3.97 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-0, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Under 2.5 at odds of 1.9. The actual market outcome was Under 2.5. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 13 verifiable pre-match indicators, 12 aligned with the final result and 1 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.