Match context

The upcoming match between Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama is scheduled for 23.08.2026 19:00 in Serie A. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Palmeiras are in position 1 with 47 points after 21 matches. The season record is 14 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 38 scored and 16 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLWWW. Vasco DA Gama are in position 18 with 21 points after 20 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses. The goals record is 23 scored and 31 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLLLL.

Recent results

Palmeiras recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLDDLWWLWW. The averages are 1.80 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Vasco DA Gama recorded 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLDDWDWDDL. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras recorded 7 wins, there were 2 draws, and Vasco DA Gama recorded 1 wins. The average total was 2.10 goals per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%; Under 2.5 goals — 50%; Both teams to score — 40%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 9.60; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Palmeiras or draw (1X) with 83% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 58.84%, 23.83% and 17.33%. The model momentum difference is 41.51 points in favour of Palmeiras. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.12 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -7.41%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Palmeiras 0 / Vasco DA Gama 0 supports Palmeiras by an average 1.70 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 36 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 1.90).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Palmeiras at home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 1.11 yellow cards, 0.11 red cards and 1.22 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 77.8%, 33.3%, 11.1%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 11.1%. Season card data is available for 18 of 19 completed matches (94.7% coverage). The discipline profile for Vasco DA Gama away from home is based on 6 matches. The team averages 2.17 yellow cards, 0.17 red cards and 2.33 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 83.3%, 83.3%, 50.0%, 16.7% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 16.7%. Season card data is available for 15 of 16 completed matches (93.8% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama ended 4-1. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 8 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.1 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 9.6 total corners. The match recorded 8 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 8.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Palmeiras at home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 1.11 yellow cards, 0.11 red cards and 1.22 total cards per match. In this game, Palmeiras received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 0.22 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 11.1% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 11.1%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Vasco DA Gama away from home was based on 6 matches, with averages of 2.17 yellow cards, 0.17 red cards and 2.33 total cards per match. In this game, Vasco DA Gama received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.67 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 16.7%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Palmeiras at 0. The stored market movement was 1.7 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 4-1, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Under 2.5 at odds of 1.9. The actual market outcome was Over 2.5. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 14 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 9 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.