Match context

The upcoming match between Flamengo and Botafogo is scheduled for 30.08.2026 19:00 in Serie A. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Flamengo are in position 2 with 45 points after 20 matches. The season record is 11 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses. The goals record is 37 scored and 18 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWWDD. Botafogo are in position 11 with 30 points after 20 matches. The season record is 8 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses. The goals record is 34 scored and 32 conceded. The stored form sequence is LDWDW.

Recent results

Flamengo recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWWDWDDWWW. The averages are 2.30 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Botafogo recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWLLDWDWLW. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Flamengo recorded 7 wins, there were 1 draws, and Botafogo recorded 2 wins. The average total was 2.50 goals per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 10.10; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Flamengo to win with 66% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 66.23%, 21.41% and 12.36%. The model momentum difference is 53.86 points in favour of Flamengo. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.40 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -7.28%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.20, score 79/100, 78.97% bucket win rate across 504 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Flamengo at home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 2.14 yellow cards, 0.14 red cards and 2.29 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 85.7%, 57.1%, 42.9%, 14.3% and 14.3% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 14.3%. Season card data is available for 17 of 17 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Botafogo away from home is based on 8 matches. The team averages 3.63 yellow cards, 0.13 red cards and 3.75 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 87.5%, 50.0% and 25.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 12.5%. Season card data is available for 17 of 18 completed matches (94.4% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Flamengo and Botafogo ended 3-0. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The verified final statistics recorded 8 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.5 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 10.1 total corners. The match recorded 8 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 8.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Flamengo at home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 2.14 yellow cards, 0.14 red cards and 2.29 total cards per match. In this game, Flamengo received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 2.29 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 42.9% of matches, 5+ in 14.3%, and a red card in 14.3%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Botafogo away from home was based on 8 matches, with averages of 3.63 yellow cards, 0.13 red cards and 3.75 total cards per match. In this game, Botafogo received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 1.75 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 87.5% of matches, 5+ in 25%, and a red card in 12.5%.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.2. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 13 verifiable pre-match indicators, 9 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.