Match context

The upcoming match between Gremio and Chapecoense-sc is scheduled for 30.08.2026 21:30 in Serie A. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Gremio are in position 15 with 25 points after 20 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses. The goals record is 22 scored and 26 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLWDL. Chapecoense-sc are in position 20 with 11 points after 20 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 7 draws and 12 losses. The goals record is 19 scored and 41 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLDLL.

Recent results

Gremio recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLLWWDLDLL. The averages are 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Chapecoense-sc recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDLLDDLLWL. The averages are 1 goals scored and 1.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Gremio recorded 4 wins, there were 4 draws, and Chapecoense-sc recorded 2 wins. The average total was 2.40 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 40%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 11.30; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Gremio to win with 61% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 60.66%, 23.20% and 16.14%. The model momentum difference is 44.52 points in favour of Gremio. The input data quality score is 98/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.53 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -7.19%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Gremio at home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 2.22 yellow cards, 0.11 red cards and 2.33 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 88.9%, 66.7%, 44.4%, 33.3% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 11.1%. Season card data is available for 17 of 17 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Chapecoense-sc away from home is based on 8 matches. The team averages 2.63 yellow cards, 0.13 red cards and 2.75 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 87.5%, 62.5%, 62.5%, 50.0% and 12.5% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 12.5%. Season card data is available for 15 of 16 completed matches (93.8% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Gremio and Chapecoense-sc ended 3-1. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 12 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.4 goals, while this match produced 4. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 11.3 total corners. The match recorded 12 corners in total. The result remained within one corner of the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Gremio at home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 2.22 yellow cards, 0.11 red cards and 2.33 total cards per match. In this game, Gremio received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.67 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 44.4% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 11.1%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Chapecoense-sc away from home was based on 8 matches, with averages of 2.63 yellow cards, 0.13 red cards and 2.75 total cards per match. In this game, Chapecoense-sc received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.75 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 62.5% of matches, 5+ in 12.5%, and a red card in 12.5%.

Summary

Of 13 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 6 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.