Match context

The upcoming match between Flamengo and Corinthians is scheduled for 13.09.2026 20:30 in Serie A. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Flamengo are in position 2 with 54 points after 26 matches. The season record is 16 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses. The goals record is 51 scored and 21 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWLW. Corinthians are in position 13 with 32 points after 26 matches. The season record is 8 wins, 8 draws and 10 losses. The goals record is 27 scored and 27 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLLLW.

Recent results

Flamengo recorded 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWLWWDWD. The averages are 2 goals scored and 0.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Corinthians recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLLLWLDWWL. The averages are 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Flamengo recorded 5 wins, there were 3 draws, and Corinthians recorded 2 wins. The average total was 2 goals per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 100%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 9.70; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Flamengo to win with 77% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 76.57%, 16.25% and 7.19%. The model momentum difference is 69.38 points in favour of Flamengo. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.22 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.59%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Flamengo 0 / Corinthians 0 supports Flamengo by an average 2.40 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 14 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 2).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Flamengo at home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 1.67 yellow cards, 0.11 red cards and 1.78 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 66.7%, 44.4%, 33.3%, 11.1% and 11.1% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 11.1%. Season card data is available for 20 of 26 completed matches (76.9% coverage). The discipline profile for Corinthians away from home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 2.78 yellow cards, 0.11 red cards and 2.89 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 88.9%, 44.4%, 33.3% and 22.2% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 11.1%. Season card data is available for 19 of 26 completed matches (73.1% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Flamengo and Corinthians ended 2-1. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 20 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 9.7 total corners. The match recorded 20 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Flamengo at home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 1.67 yellow cards, 0.11 red cards and 1.78 total cards per match. In this game, Flamengo received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 1.22 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 33.3% of matches, 5+ in 11.1%, and a red card in 11.1%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Corinthians away from home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 2.78 yellow cards, 0.11 red cards and 2.89 total cards per match. In this game, Corinthians received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.11 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 44.4% of matches, 5+ in 22.2%, and a red card in 11.1%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Flamengo at 0. The stored market movement was 2.4 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 2-1, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Under 2.5 at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Over 2.5. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 14 verifiable pre-match indicators, 9 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.