Match context

The upcoming match between Mirassol and Vitoria is scheduled for 13.09.2026 19:00 in Serie A. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Mirassol are in position 16 with 28 points after 26 matches. The season record is 7 wins, 7 draws and 12 losses. The goals record is 29 scored and 40 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLDDL. Vitoria are in position 12 with 32 points after 26 matches. The season record is 9 wins, 5 draws and 12 losses. The goals record is 25 scored and 37 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLLWL.

Recent results

Mirassol recorded 1 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLDDDLDLLD. The averages are 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. Vitoria recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 7 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLLLLWLWLL. The averages are 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 10% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 6 head-to-head matches, Mirassol recorded 1 wins, there were 2 draws, and Vitoria recorded 3 wins. The average total was 1.67 goals per match. Both teams scored in 33.3% of those matches, while 16.7% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Under 2.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 50%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 8.90; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 94%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Mirassol or draw (1X) with 81% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 54.75%, 26.31% and 18.94%. The model momentum difference is 35.81 points in favour of Mirassol. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.17 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.16%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Mirassol -0.25 / Vitoria +0.25 supports Mirassol by an average 3.51 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 23 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 1.90).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Mirassol at home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 2.44 yellow cards, 0.11 red cards and 2.56 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 66.7%, 33.3%, 22.2% and 22.2% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 11.1%. Season card data is available for 19 of 26 completed matches (73.1% coverage). The discipline profile for Vitoria away from home is based on 10 matches. The team averages 2.30 yellow cards, 0.10 red cards and 2.40 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 60.0%, 40.0%, 40.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 10.0%. Season card data is available for 21 of 26 completed matches (80.8% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Mirassol and Vitoria ended 2-2. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 17 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 6 head-to-head meetings averaged 1.67 goals, while this match produced 4. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 6 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 6 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 83.3%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 8.9 total corners. The match recorded 17 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 94%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Mirassol at home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 2.44 yellow cards, 0.11 red cards and 2.56 total cards per match. In this game, Mirassol received 5 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 5 in total. That was 2.44 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 33.3% of matches, 5+ in 22.2%, and a red card in 11.1%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Vitoria away from home was based on 10 matches, with averages of 2.3 yellow cards, 0.1 red cards and 2.4 total cards per match. In this game, Vitoria received 5 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 5 in total. That was 2.6 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 40% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 10%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Mirassol at -0.25. The stored market movement was 3.51 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 2-2, the line settled as a half loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Under 2.5 at odds of 1.9. The actual market outcome was Over 2.5. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 13 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 9 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.