Match context

The upcoming match between St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City is scheduled for 02.08.2026 16:00 in Premier Division. The listed venue is Richmond Park, Dublin. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
St Patrick's Athl. are in position 2 with 43 points after 25 matches. The season record is 12 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 40 scored and 21 conceded. The stored form sequence is DDWLW. Derry City are in position 6 with 29 points after 25 matches. The season record is 6 wins, 11 draws and 8 losses. The goals record is 32 scored and 31 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWDLW.

Recent results

St Patrick's Athl. recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWWDWLWWLD. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. Derry City recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLWLLLWDLW. The averages are 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, St Patrick's Athl. recorded 2 wins, there were 3 draws, and Derry City recorded 5 wins. The average total was 1.70 goals per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as St Patrick's Athl. or draw (1X) with 81% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 53.82%, 26.91% and 19.26%. The model momentum difference is 34.56 points in favour of St Patrick's Athl.. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.18 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -4.73%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair St Patrick's Athl. -0.25 / Derry City +0.25 supports St Patrick's Athl. by an average 1.74 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 37 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

What happened in the match

The match between St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City ended 1-1. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 1.7 goals, while this match produced 2. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported St Patrick's Athl. at -0.25. The stored market movement was 1.74 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-1, the line settled as a half loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.