Match context

The upcoming match between Derry City and Sligo Rovers is scheduled for 07.08.2026 18:45 in Premier Division. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Derry City are in position 6 with 29 points after 26 matches. The season record is 6 wins, 12 draws and 8 losses. The goals record is 33 scored and 32 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWDLW. Sligo Rovers are in position 10 with 21 points after 26 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 7 draws and 14 losses. The goals record is 23 scored and 43 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLLDL.

Recent results

Derry City recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLLWLLLWDL. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Sligo Rovers recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DDWLLLDLLL. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Derry City recorded 5 wins, there were 2 draws, and Sligo Rovers recorded 3 wins. The average total was 2.10 goals per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 11.60; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Derry City to win with 65% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 64.63%, 20.90% and 14.48%. The model momentum difference is 50.15 points in favour of Derry City. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.40 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.52%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Derry City 0 / Sligo Rovers 0 supports Sligo Rovers by an average 1.08 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 4 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.22, score 75/100, 75.38% bucket win rate across 260 observations).

What happened in the match

The match between Derry City and Sligo Rovers ended 2-0. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.1 goals, while this match produced 2. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Sligo Rovers at 0. The stored market movement was 1.08 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 2-0, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.22. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 11 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.