Match context

The upcoming match between St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford is scheduled for 28.08.2026 18:45 in Premier Division. The listed venue is Richmond Park, Dublin. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
St Patrick's Athl. are in position 2 with 44 points after 26 matches. The season record is 12 wins, 8 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 41 scored and 22 conceded. The stored form sequence is DDDWL. Waterford are in position 9 with 25 points after 26 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 10 draws and 11 losses. The goals record is 34 scored and 47 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDDWW.

Recent results

St Patrick's Athl. recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWDDWWDWL. The averages are 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Waterford recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWWWDWDWWL. The averages are 1.60 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, St Patrick's Athl. recorded 5 wins, there were 4 draws, and Waterford recorded 1 wins. The average total was 2.60 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 10.80; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as St Patrick's Athl. to win with 70% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 69.63%, 19.06% and 11.31%. The model momentum difference is 58.31 points in favour of St Patrick's Athl.. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.30 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.48%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for St Patrick's Athl. at home is based on 14 matches. The team averages 1.57 yellow cards, 0.07 red cards and 1.64 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 64.3%, 50.0%, 35.7%, 7.1% and 7.1% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 7.1%. Season card data is available for 28 of 28 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Waterford away from home is based on 14 matches. The team averages 2.14 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.14 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 71.4%, 28.6%, 7.1% and 7.1% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 28 of 28 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford ended 0-2. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 14 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.6 goals, while this match produced 2. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 10.8 total corners. The match recorded 14 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for St Patrick's Athl. at home was based on 14 matches, with averages of 1.57 yellow cards, 0.07 red cards and 1.64 total cards per match. In this game, St Patrick's Athl. received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 1.64 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 35.7% of matches, 5+ in 7.1%, and a red card in 7.1%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Waterford away from home was based on 14 matches, with averages of 2.14 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.14 total cards per match. In this game, Waterford received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 2.14 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 28.6% of matches, 5+ in 7.1%, and a red card in 0%.

Summary

Of 13 verifiable pre-match indicators, 9 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.