Match context

The upcoming match between Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. is scheduled for 19.09.2026 18:45 in Premier Division. The listed venue is The Showgrounds, Sligo. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Sligo Rovers are in position 10 with 23 points after 31 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 8 draws and 18 losses. The goals record is 24 scored and 53 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLLDL. St Patrick's Athl. are in position 2 with 56 points after 31 matches. The season record is 16 wins, 8 draws and 7 losses. The goals record is 51 scored and 25 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWLWW.

Recent results

Sligo Rovers recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLLDWLDDW. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. St Patrick's Athl. recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWDLWWWDDW. The averages are 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Sligo Rovers recorded 2 wins, there were 1 draws, and St Patrick's Athl. recorded 7 wins. The average total was 2.90 goals per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 9.90; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as St Patrick's Athl. to win with 65% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 12.90%, 22.58% and 64.52%. The model momentum difference is 51.61 points in favour of St Patrick's Athl.. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.40 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.68%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Sligo Rovers +0.75 / St Patrick's Athl. -0.75 supports Sligo Rovers by an average 1.31 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 5 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.20, score 80/100, 79.97% bucket win rate across 634 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Sligo Rovers at home is based on 15 matches. The team averages 1.33 yellow cards, 0.13 red cards and 1.47 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 86.7%, 33.3%, 20.0%, 6.7% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 13.3%. Season card data is available for 31 of 31 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for St Patrick's Athl. away from home is based on 15 matches. The team averages 1.67 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.67 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 80.0%, 60.0%, 20.0%, 6.7% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 31 of 31 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. ended 0-1. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 9 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.9 goals, while this match produced 1. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 9.9 total corners. The match recorded 9 corners in total. The result remained within one corner of the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Sligo Rovers at home was based on 15 matches, with averages of 1.33 yellow cards, 0.13 red cards and 1.47 total cards per match. In this game, Sligo Rovers received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 1.53 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 20% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 13.3%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for St Patrick's Athl. away from home was based on 15 matches, with averages of 1.67 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.67 total cards per match. In this game, St Patrick's Athl. received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 0.67 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 20% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Sligo Rovers at +0.75. The stored market movement was 1.31 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 0-1, the line settled as a half loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.2. The actual market outcome was Under 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 14 verifiable pre-match indicators, 8 aligned with the final result and 6 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.