Match context

The upcoming match between Treaty United and Cork City is scheduled for 21.08.2026 18:45 in First Division. The listed venue is Markets Field, Limerick. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Treaty United are in position 9 with 29 points after 26 matches. The season record is 7 wins, 8 draws and 11 losses. The goals record is 26 scored and 37 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWLWW. Cork City are in position 1 with 63 points after 26 matches. The season record is 19 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses. The goals record is 54 scored and 22 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWLL.

Recent results

Treaty United recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWLWLWWDLD. The averages are 1 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Cork City recorded 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWLLLLWWW. The averages are 2.30 goals scored and 2.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Treaty United recorded 0 wins, there were 4 draws, and Cork City recorded 6 wins. The average total was 2 goals per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 2.5 goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Cork City to win with 61% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 15.82%, 22.74% and 61.45%. The model momentum difference is 45.63 points in favour of Cork City. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.48 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.06%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.20, score 78/100, 77.58% bucket win rate across 446 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Treaty United at home is based on 8 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 75.0%, 25.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 16 of 27 completed matches (59.3% coverage). The discipline profile for Cork City away from home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 2.33 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.33 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 88.9%, 44.4%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 15 of 27 completed matches (55.6% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Treaty United and Cork City ended 2-2. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2 goals, while this match produced 4. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Treaty United at home was based on 8 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, Treaty United received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. The total was effectively equal to the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 25% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Cork City away from home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 2.33 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.33 total cards per match. In this game, Cork City received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.33 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 44.4% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.2. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.