Match context

The upcoming match between UCD and Finn Harps is scheduled for 28.08.2026 18:45 in First Division. The listed venue is UCD Bowl, Dublin. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
UCD are in position 3 with 43 points after 26 matches. The season record is 12 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses. The goals record is 42 scored and 31 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLDWL. Finn Harps are in position 10 with 22 points after 27 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 7 draws and 15 losses. The goals record is 21 scored and 53 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLLLL.

Recent results

UCD recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLWLDWWLLW. The averages are 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. Finn Harps recorded 1 wins, 1 draws and 8 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLLLLLWDL. The averages are 0.50 goals scored and 2.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, UCD recorded 6 wins, there were 2 draws, and Finn Harps recorded 2 wins. The average total was 3.40 goals per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 2.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as UCD to win with 76% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 76.16%, 14.38% and 9.46%. The model momentum difference is 66.70 points in favour of UCD. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.18 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.13%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for UCD at home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 2.14 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.14 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 57.1%, 42.9%, 14.3% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 14 of 28 completed matches (50.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Finn Harps away from home is based on 8 matches. The team averages 2.88 yellow cards, 0.50 red cards and 3.38 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 87.5%, 62.5%, 50.0% and 25.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 37.5%. Season card data is available for 17 of 28 completed matches (60.7% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between UCD and Finn Harps ended 5-4. The game produced 9 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.4 goals, while this match produced 9. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for UCD at home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 2.14 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.14 total cards per match. In this game, UCD received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.14 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 42.9% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Finn Harps away from home was based on 8 matches, with averages of 2.88 yellow cards, 0.5 red cards and 3.38 total cards per match. In this game, Finn Harps received 4 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 4 in total. That was 0.62 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 62.5% of matches, 5+ in 25%, and a red card in 37.5%.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.