Match context

The upcoming match between Wexford and Finn Harps is scheduled for 11.09.2026 18:45 in First Division. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Wexford are in position 7 with 34 points after 30 matches. The season record is 10 wins, 7 draws and 13 losses. The goals record is 33 scored and 43 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWLWD. Finn Harps are in position 10 with 22 points after 30 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 7 draws and 18 losses. The goals record is 26 scored and 62 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLLLL.

Recent results

Wexford recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLLLWLWLDL. The averages are 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Finn Harps recorded 1 wins, 0 draws and 9 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLLLLLLLW. The averages are 0.70 goals scored and 2.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Wexford recorded 5 wins, there were 3 draws, and Finn Harps recorded 2 wins. The average total was 2.50 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 50%; Over 3.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Wexford to win with 68% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 67.51%, 18.36% and 14.13%. The model momentum difference is 53.39 points in favour of Wexford. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.36 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -8.18%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Wexford -0.25 / Finn Harps +0.25 supports Wexford by an average 1.15 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 5 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Wexford at home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 2.78 yellow cards, 0.33 red cards and 3.11 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 88.9%, 55.6%, 22.2% and 11.1% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 22.2%. Season card data is available for 19 of 30 completed matches (63.3% coverage). The discipline profile for Finn Harps away from home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 3.00 yellow cards, 0.44 red cards and 3.44 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 88.9%, 66.7%, 55.6% and 22.2% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 33.3%. Season card data is available for 19 of 30 completed matches (63.3% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Wexford and Finn Harps ended 1-3. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.5 goals, while this match produced 4. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Wexford at home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 2.78 yellow cards, 0.33 red cards and 3.11 total cards per match. In this game, Wexford received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 2.11 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 55.6% of matches, 5+ in 11.1%, and a red card in 22.2%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Finn Harps away from home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 3 yellow cards, 0.44 red cards and 3.44 total cards per match. In this game, Finn Harps received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 2.44 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 66.7% of matches, 5+ in 22.2%, and a red card in 33.3%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Wexford at -0.25. The stored market movement was 1.15 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-3, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 3 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.