Match context

The upcoming match between Independiente and Newells Old Boys is scheduled for 31.07.2026 00:15 in Liga Profesional Argentina. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Independiente are in position 2 with 3 points after 18 matches. The season record is 7 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 27 scored and 23 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLWLW. Newells Old Boys are in position 4 with 3 points after 17 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses. The goals record is 16 scored and 27 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDDWD.

Recent results

Independiente recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWLWLWWLDL. The averages are 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Newells Old Boys recorded 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDDDLWLDLD. The averages are 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 10% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Independiente recorded 4 wins, there were 2 draws, and Newells Old Boys recorded 4 wins. The average total was 2.80 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Independiente or draw (1X) with 83% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 55.72%, 27.06% and 17.22%. The model momentum difference is 38.50 points in favour of Independiente. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.14 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.63%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

What happened in the match

The match between Independiente and Newells Old Boys ended 1-0. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.8 goals, while this match produced 1. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.