Match context

The upcoming match between Union Santa Fe and Sarmiento Junin is scheduled for 28.08.2026 22:00 in Liga Profesional Argentina. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Union Santa Fe are in position 10 with 7 points after 21 matches. The season record is 7 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses. The goals record is 30 scored and 28 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLLWL. Sarmiento Junin are in position 2 with 12 points after 19 matches. The season record is 7 wins, 1 draws and 11 losses. The goals record is 19 scored and 27 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWWL.

Recent results

Union Santa Fe recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLLWLDLLWD. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Sarmiento Junin recorded 5 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWLLLLWL. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Union Santa Fe recorded 6 wins, there were 1 draws, and Sarmiento Junin recorded 3 wins. The average total was 2.30 goals per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 9.54; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Union Santa Fe or draw (1X) with 80% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 51.28%, 28.75% and 19.97%. The model momentum difference is 31.31 points in favour of Union Santa Fe. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.18 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.57%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Union Santa Fe -0.25 / Sarmiento Junin +0.25 supports Sarmiento Junin by an average 1.27 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 32 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Union Santa Fe at home is based on 8 matches. The team averages 2.13 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.13 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 87.5%, 62.5%, 37.5%, 12.5% and 12.5% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 19 of 19 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Sarmiento Junin away from home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 2.86 yellow cards, 0.14 red cards and 3.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 71.4%, 57.1%, 28.6% and 14.3% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 14.3%. Season card data is available for 19 of 19 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Union Santa Fe and Sarmiento Junin ended 4-1. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The verified final statistics recorded 6 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.3 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 9.54 total corners. The match recorded 6 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 7.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 8.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Union Santa Fe at home was based on 8 matches, with averages of 2.13 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.13 total cards per match. In this game, Union Santa Fe received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.13 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 37.5% of matches, 5+ in 12.5%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Sarmiento Junin away from home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 2.86 yellow cards, 0.14 red cards and 3 total cards per match. In this game, Sarmiento Junin received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 1 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 57.1% of matches, 5+ in 14.3%, and a red card in 14.3%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Sarmiento Junin at +0.25. The stored market movement was 1.27 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 4-1, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 14 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 9 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.