Match context

The upcoming match between Louisville City and Birmingham Legion is scheduled for 29.07.2026 23:30 in USL Championship. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Louisville City are in position 4 with 24 points after 16 matches. The season record is 7 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 26 scored and 25 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWDWD. Birmingham Legion are in position 11 with 14 points after 15 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 16 scored and 19 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLDDL.

Recent results

Louisville City recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLWWDDWDLL. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Birmingham Legion recorded 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDLDDLWDLD. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Louisville City recorded 5 wins, there were 3 draws, and Birmingham Legion recorded 2 wins. The average total was 2.90 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Both teams to score — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Louisville City to win with 65% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 64.90%, 21.32% and 13.78%. The model momentum difference is 51.12 points in favour of Louisville City. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.38 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.44%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2). Goals Over/Under — Under 0.5 (odds 17, score 82/100, 81.71% bucket win rate across 1684 observations).

What happened in the match

The match between Louisville City and Birmingham Legion ended 2-1. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.9 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Odd. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal at odds of 17. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 8 aligned with the final result and 1 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.