Match context

The upcoming match between Lexington and Monterey Bay is scheduled for 01.08.2026 23:00 in USL Championship. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Lexington are in position 7 with 22 points after 16 matches. The season record is 6 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 24 scored and 20 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWLWW. Monterey Bay are in position 12 with 15 points after 17 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 3 draws and 10 losses. The goals record is 17 scored and 27 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLDWL.

Recent results

Lexington recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWLLWDWDWL. The averages are 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Monterey Bay recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLDWLWDWW. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 3 head-to-head matches, Lexington recorded 1 wins, there were 1 draws, and Monterey Bay recorded 1 wins. The average total was 2.33 goals per match. Both teams scored in 66.7% of those matches, while 66.7% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 50%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Lexington or draw (1X) with 83% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 59.83%, 23.30% and 16.87%. The model momentum difference is 42.96 points in favour of Lexington. The input data quality score is 92/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.11 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -7.72%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Lexington 0 / Monterey Bay 0 supports Lexington by an average 2.02 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 6 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.22, score 79/100, 79.08% bucket win rate across 239 observations).

What happened in the match

The match between Lexington and Monterey Bay ended 3-2. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 4 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 3 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.33 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Lexington at 0. The stored market movement was 2.02 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 3-2, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.22. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 1 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.