Match context

The upcoming match between Orange County SC and Louisville City is scheduled for 16.08.2026 02:00 in USL Championship. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Orange County SC are in position 1 with 34 points after 18 matches. The season record is 9 wins, 7 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 29 scored and 19 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWWDD. Louisville City are in position 4 with 28 points after 18 matches. The season record is 8 wins, 3 draws and 7 losses. The goals record is 32 scored and 31 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLWLW.

Recent results

Orange County SC recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWWLDDWWDL. The averages are 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. Louisville City recorded 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DDLWWLWWDD. The averages are 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 4 head-to-head matches, Orange County SC recorded 0 wins, there were 1 draws, and Louisville City recorded 3 wins. The average total was 2.75 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 75% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Orange County SC 0 / Louisville City 0 supports Orange County SC by an average 2.13 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 6 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 2).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Orange County SC at home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 2.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 50.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 9 of 19 completed matches (47.4% coverage). The discipline profile for Louisville City away from home is based on 6 matches. The team averages 1.67 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.67 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 16.7%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 11 of 17 completed matches (64.7% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Orange County SC and Louisville City ended 2-3. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 4 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.75 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 4 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 75%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Orange County SC at home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 2.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.5 total cards per match. In this game, Orange County SC received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 2.5 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Louisville City away from home was based on 6 matches, with averages of 1.67 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.67 total cards per match. In this game, Louisville City received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 0.67 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 16.7% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Orange County SC at 0. The stored market movement was 2.13 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 2-3, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Under 2.5 at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Over 2.5. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.