Match context

The upcoming match between Sacramento Republic and Lexington is scheduled for 16.08.2026 03:00 in USL Championship. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Sacramento Republic are in position 7 with 27 points after 17 matches. The season record is 7 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 24 scored and 16 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLWWD. Lexington are in position 5 with 28 points after 17 matches. The season record is 7 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 27 scored and 22 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWDWL.

Recent results

Sacramento Republic recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLWWDLWLWD. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. Lexington recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWDWLLWDWD. The averages are 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 3 head-to-head matches, Sacramento Republic recorded 0 wins, there were 3 draws, and Lexington recorded 0 wins. The average total was 1.33 goals per match. Both teams scored in 33.3% of those matches, while 33.3% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 40%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Sacramento Republic -0.25 / Lexington +0.25 supports Sacramento Republic by an average 2.75 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 7 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Sacramento Republic at home is based on 4 matches. The team averages 1.75 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.75 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 25.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 10 of 17 completed matches (58.8% coverage). The discipline profile for Lexington away from home is based on 5 matches. The team averages 3.00 yellow cards, 0.20 red cards and 3.20 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 80.0%, 60.0%, 40.0% and 20.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 20.0%. Season card data is available for 11 of 15 completed matches (73.3% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Sacramento Republic and Lexington ended 1-0. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 3 head-to-head meetings averaged 1.33 goals, while this match produced 1. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Sacramento Republic at home was based on 4 matches, with averages of 1.75 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.75 total cards per match. In this game, Sacramento Republic received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 1.25 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 25% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Lexington away from home was based on 5 matches, with averages of 3 yellow cards, 0.2 red cards and 3.2 total cards per match. In this game, Lexington received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 1.2 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 60% of matches, 5+ in 20%, and a red card in 20%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Sacramento Republic at -0.25. The stored market movement was 2.75 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-0, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Odd. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 11 verifiable pre-match indicators, 10 aligned with the final result and 1 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.