Match context

The upcoming match between Rhode Island and Monterey Bay is scheduled for 22.08.2026 23:30 in USL Championship. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Rhode Island are in position 6 with 25 points after 16 matches. The season record is 6 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 25 scored and 19 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLWWL. Monterey Bay are in position 12 with 15 points after 19 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 3 draws and 12 losses. The goals record is 19 scored and 31 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLLLL.

Recent results

Rhode Island recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWLWWDLDWW. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. Monterey Bay recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLLLLLLDWL. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 2 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 2 head-to-head matches, Rhode Island recorded 0 wins, there were 2 draws, and Monterey Bay recorded 0 wins. The average total was 3 goals per match. Both teams scored in 100% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Under 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 50%; Both teams to score — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Rhode Island to win with 69% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 68.62%, 19.21% and 12.17%. The model momentum difference is 56.45 points in favour of Rhode Island. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.33 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -8.74%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Rhode Island -0.25 / Monterey Bay +0.25 supports Rhode Island by an average 3.65 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 6 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Rhode Island at home is based on 6 matches. The team averages 3.67 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 3.67 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 83.3%, 33.3% and 33.3% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 12 of 16 completed matches (75.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Monterey Bay away from home is based on 6 matches. The team averages 3.33 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 3.33 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 83.3%, 33.3% and 16.7% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 12 of 20 completed matches (60.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Rhode Island and Monterey Bay ended 3-1. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Rhode Island at home was based on 6 matches, with averages of 3.67 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 3.67 total cards per match. In this game, Rhode Island received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.67 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 83.3% of matches, 5+ in 33.3%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Monterey Bay away from home was based on 6 matches, with averages of 3.33 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 3.33 total cards per match. In this game, Monterey Bay received 5 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 5 in total. That was 1.67 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 83.3% of matches, 5+ in 16.7%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Rhode Island at -0.25. The stored market movement was 3.65 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 3-1, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 6 verifiable pre-match indicators, 2 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.