Match context

The upcoming match between Detroit City and Birmingham Legion is scheduled for 03.10.2026 23:00 in USL Championship. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Detroit City are in position 3 with 44 points after 26 matches. The season record is 12 wins, 8 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 32 scored and 20 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDWLD. Birmingham Legion are in position 10 with 23 points after 25 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 11 draws and 10 losses. The goals record is 36 scored and 42 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLDDD.

Recent results

Detroit City recorded 4 wins, 5 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDWLDDWDWD. The averages are 0.90 goals scored and 0.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 20% finished with over 2.5 goals. Birmingham Legion recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLDDDLLLWL. The averages are 2 goals scored and 2.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 90% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 9 head-to-head matches, Detroit City recorded 6 wins, there were 2 draws, and Birmingham Legion recorded 1 wins. The average total was 2.56 goals per match. Both teams scored in 66.7% of those matches, while 55.6% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%; Over 3.5 goals — 50%; Under 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Detroit City or draw (1X) with 81% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 56.98%, 24.18% and 18.84%. The model momentum difference is 38.15 points in favour of Detroit City. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.12 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.10%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Detroit City -0.5 / Birmingham Legion +0.5 supports Birmingham Legion by an average 2.23 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (Bet365) with up to 3 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 2).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Detroit City at home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 2.22 yellow cards, 0.11 red cards and 2.33 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 33.3%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 11.1%. Season card data is available for 18 of 26 completed matches (69.2% coverage). The discipline profile for Birmingham Legion away from home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 2.57 yellow cards, 0.14 red cards and 2.71 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 85.7%, 71.4%, 14.3% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 14.3%. Season card data is available for 16 of 25 completed matches (64.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Detroit City and Birmingham Legion ended 1-0. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 9 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.56 goals, while this match produced 1. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 9 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 9 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 55.6%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Detroit City at home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 2.22 yellow cards, 0.11 red cards and 2.33 total cards per match. In this game, Detroit City received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.67 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 33.3% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 11.1%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Birmingham Legion away from home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 2.57 yellow cards, 0.14 red cards and 2.71 total cards per match. In this game, Birmingham Legion received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.29 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 71.4% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 14.3%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Birmingham Legion at +0.5. The stored market movement was 2.23 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 1-0, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Under 2.5 at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Under 2.5. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.