Match context

The upcoming match between Sporting JAX and Louisville City is scheduled for 21.10.2026 23:30 in USL Championship. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Sporting JAX are in position 13 with 14 points after 28 matches. The season record is 3 wins, 5 draws and 20 losses. The goals record is 32 scored and 74 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLLLL. Louisville City are in position 4 with 43 points after 28 matches. The season record is 12 wins, 7 draws and 9 losses. The goals record is 49 scored and 43 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWDWL.

Recent results

Sporting JAX recorded 2 wins, 0 draws and 8 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLLLWLWLL. The averages are 0.90 goals scored and 2.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. Louisville City recorded 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWDWLDDDL. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 1 head-to-head matches, Sporting JAX recorded 0 wins, there were 0 draws, and Louisville City recorded 1 wins. The average total was 1 goals per match. Both teams scored in 0% of those matches, while 0% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Louisville City to win with 65% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 14.97%, 19.96% and 65.08%. The model momentum difference is 50.11 points in favour of Louisville City. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.38 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.20%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 19, score 82/100, 81.63% group success rate across 1949 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Sporting JAX at home is based on 10 matches. The team averages 2.20 yellow cards, 0.10 red cards and 2.30 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 70.0%, 40.0%, 10.0% and 10.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 10.0%. Season card data is available for 20 of 28 completed matches (71.4% coverage). The discipline profile for Louisville City away from home is based on 10 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 30.0%, 20.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 18 of 28 completed matches (64.3% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Sporting JAX and Louisville City ended 0-2. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Sporting JAX at home was based on 10 matches, with averages of 2.2 yellow cards, 0.1 red cards and 2.3 total cards per match. In this game, Sporting JAX received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.3 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 40% of matches, 5+ in 10%, and a red card in 10%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Louisville City away from home was based on 10 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, Louisville City received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 1 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 30% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 19. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 6 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.