Match context

The upcoming match between Tampa Bay Rowdies and Miami FC is scheduled for 03.10.2026 23:30 in USL Championship. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Tampa Bay Rowdies are in position 1 with 52 points after 26 matches. The season record is 15 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses. The goals record is 45 scored and 23 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWLWD. Miami FC are in position 8 with 33 points after 27 matches. The season record is 8 wins, 9 draws and 10 losses. The goals record is 36 scored and 44 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWDD.

Recent results

Tampa Bay Rowdies recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWLWDLWDWW. The averages are 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Miami FC recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWDDLLLLD. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Tampa Bay Rowdies recorded 9 wins, there were 1 draws, and Miami FC recorded 0 wins. The average total was 3.90 goals per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 50%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Tampa Bay Rowdies to win with 66% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 66.44%, 21.51% and 12.05%. The model momentum difference is 54.39 points in favour of Tampa Bay Rowdies. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.36 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.64%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Tampa Bay Rowdies +0.5 / Miami FC -0.5 supports Tampa Bay Rowdies by an average 1.03 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (Bet365) with up to 3 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Tampa Bay Rowdies at home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 2.29 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.29 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 85.7%, 28.6%, 14.3% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 18 of 26 completed matches (69.2% coverage). The discipline profile for Miami FC away from home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 4.11 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 4.11 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 88.9%, 88.9%, 66.7% and 44.4% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 19 of 27 completed matches (70.4% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Tampa Bay Rowdies and Miami FC ended 1-2. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.9 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Tampa Bay Rowdies at home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 2.29 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.29 total cards per match. In this game, Tampa Bay Rowdies received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.29 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 28.6% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Miami FC away from home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 4.11 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 4.11 total cards per match. In this game, Miami FC received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 4.11 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 88.9% of matches, 5+ in 44.4%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Tampa Bay Rowdies at +0.5. The stored market movement was 1.03 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 1-2, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.