Match context

The upcoming match between Union Omaha and Richmond Kickers is scheduled for 16.08.2026 23:00 in USL League One. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Union Omaha are in position 1 with 41 points after 19 matches. The season record is 12 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 31 scored and 21 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWDW. Richmond Kickers are in position 16 with 18 points after 19 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 3 draws and 11 losses. The goals record is 18 scored and 35 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWLLL.

Recent results

Union Omaha recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWDLWLLLW. The averages are 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Richmond Kickers recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWLLLWDLLL. The averages are 0.90 goals scored and 2 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Union Omaha recorded 4 wins, there were 2 draws, and Richmond Kickers recorded 4 wins. The average total was 2.80 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 100%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Union Omaha to win with 69% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 68.52%, 18.75% and 12.73%. The model momentum difference is 55.80 points in favour of Union Omaha. The input data quality score is 91/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.30 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.92%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Union Omaha at home is based on 6 matches. The team averages 1.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 14 of 18 completed matches (77.8% coverage). The discipline profile for Richmond Kickers away from home is based on 6 matches. The team averages 4.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 4.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 83.3%, 83.3%, 66.7% and 33.3% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 12 of 16 completed matches (75.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Union Omaha and Richmond Kickers ended 5-1. The game produced 6 goals in total. The first half contained 4 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.8 goals, while this match produced 6. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Union Omaha at home was based on 6 matches, with averages of 1.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.5 total cards per match. In this game, Union Omaha received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 1.5 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Richmond Kickers away from home was based on 6 matches, with averages of 4 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 4 total cards per match. In this game, Richmond Kickers received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 3 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 83.3% of matches, 5+ in 33.3%, and a red card in 0%.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 1 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.