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🔁 Head-to-Head

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🟢 Union Omaha 🟡 Draws Sarasota Paradise 🔴
Date Match Score
13.06.2026 Sarasota Paradise - Union Omaha 2 : 0

🗓 Latest Matches: Union Omaha

Date Match Score Res
22.08.2026 Union Omaha - Sarasota Paradise 1 - 1 D
16.08.2026 Union Omaha - Richmond Kickers 5 - 1 W
08.08.2026 Chattanooga Red Wolves - Union Omaha 1 - 3 W
01.08.2026 Fort Wayne - Union Omaha 0 - 2 W
25.07.2026 Union Omaha - Tormenta 0 - 0 D

📆 Latest Matches: Sarasota Paradise

Date Match Score Res
22.08.2026 Union Omaha - Sarasota Paradise 1 - 1 D
19.08.2026 Sarasota Paradise - Chattanooga Red Wolves 3 - 2 W
15.08.2026 Charlotte Independence - Sarasota Paradise 3 - 1 L
08.08.2026 One Knoxville - Sarasota Paradise 2 - 1 L
01.08.2026 Sarasota Paradise - Naples -

Pre-match analysis

This analysis is locked and its content can no longer be changed.

Match context

The upcoming match between Union Omaha and Sarasota Paradise is scheduled for 22.08.2026 23:00 in USL League One. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Union Omaha are in position 1 with 44 points after 19 matches. The season record is 12 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 31 scored and 21 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWWD. Sarasota Paradise are in position 15 with 18 points after 18 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 3 draws and 10 losses. The goals record is 17 scored and 28 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLDDL.

Recent results

Union Omaha recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWDLWLLL. The averages are 2 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Sarasota Paradise recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLLLDDLWLW. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 1 head-to-head matches, Union Omaha recorded 0 wins, there were 0 draws, and Sarasota Paradise recorded 1 wins. The average total was 2 goals per match. Both teams scored in 0% of those matches, while 0% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 100%; Over 2.5 goals — 90%; Both teams to score — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Union Omaha to win with 60% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 60.35%, 21.79% and 17.86%. The model momentum difference is 42.49 points in favour of Union Omaha. The input data quality score is 94/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.48 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.68%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Union Omaha -0.25 / Sarasota Paradise +0.25 supports Union Omaha by an average 1.05 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 3 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Both Teams Score — Yes (odds 1.70).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Union Omaha at home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 1.71 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.71 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 57.1%, 14.3%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 15 of 19 completed matches (78.9% coverage). The discipline profile for Sarasota Paradise away from home is based on 8 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.13 red cards and 2.13 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 62.5%, 12.5%, 12.5% and 12.5% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 12.5%. Season card data is available for 14 of 16 completed matches (87.5% coverage).

Generated: 2026-08-22 19:00:12 · Locked: 2026-08-23 00:40:08

Post-match review

What happened in the match

The match between Union Omaha and Sarasota Paradise ended 1-1. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Union Omaha at home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 1.71 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.71 total cards per match. In this game, Union Omaha received 6 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 6 in total. That was 4.29 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 14.3% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Sarasota Paradise away from home was based on 8 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0.13 red cards and 2.13 total cards per match. In this game, Sarasota Paradise received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.87 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 12.5% of matches, 5+ in 12.5%, and a red card in 12.5%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Union Omaha at -0.25. The stored market movement was 1.05 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 1-1, the line settled as a half loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was BTTS Yes at odds of 1.7. The actual market outcome was BTTS Yes. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.

Added after the match: 2026-08-23 03:31:14
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