Match context

The upcoming match between Charlotte Independence and Alta is scheduled for 28.08.2026 23:00 in USL League One. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Charlotte Independence are in position 2 with 43 points after 18 matches. The season record is 11 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses. The goals record is 42 scored and 27 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWWWW. Alta are in position 8 with 32 points after 21 matches. The season record is 7 wins, 8 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 29 scored and 26 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLWLL.

Recent results

Charlotte Independence recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWLWWWLLDD. The averages are 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. Alta recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLWLLDWLWD. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 3 head-to-head matches, Charlotte Independence recorded 1 wins, there were 1 draws, and Alta recorded 1 wins. The average total was 3.33 goals per match. Both teams scored in 100% of those matches, while 66.7% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Charlotte Independence to win with 62% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 61.59%, 21.05% and 17.36%. The model momentum difference is 44.23 points in favour of Charlotte Independence. The input data quality score is 95/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.48 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -8.85%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 21, score 84/100, 84.48% group success rate across 1063 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Charlotte Independence at home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 2.11 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.11 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 77.8%, 22.2%, 11.1% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 15 of 17 completed matches (88.2% coverage). The discipline profile for Alta away from home is based on 8 matches. The team averages 2.75 yellow cards, 0.13 red cards and 2.88 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 62.5%, 62.5%, 37.5% and 25.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 12.5%. Season card data is available for 16 of 24 completed matches (66.7% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Charlotte Independence and Alta ended 5-0. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 4 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 3 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.33 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 100%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Charlotte Independence at home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 2.11 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.11 total cards per match. In this game, Charlotte Independence received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.11 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 22.2% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Alta away from home was based on 8 matches, with averages of 2.75 yellow cards, 0.13 red cards and 2.88 total cards per match. In this game, Alta received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.12 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 62.5% of matches, 5+ in 25%, and a red card in 12.5%.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 21. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.