Match context

The upcoming match between Charlotte Independence and Portland Hearts of Pine is scheduled for 02.09.2026 23:30 in USL League One. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Charlotte Independence are in position 2 with 43 points after 18 matches. The season record is 11 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses. The goals record is 42 scored and 27 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWWWW. Portland Hearts of Pine are in position 13 with 23 points after 18 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses. The goals record is 29 scored and 31 conceded. The stored form sequence is DDLLD.

Recent results

Charlotte Independence recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDWLWWWLLD. The averages are 2.20 goals scored and 1.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals. Portland Hearts of Pine recorded 1 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDDLLDLLDW. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 2 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 90% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 2 head-to-head matches, Charlotte Independence recorded 0 wins, there were 1 draws, and Portland Hearts of Pine recorded 1 wins. The average total was 4 goals per match. Both teams scored in 100% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Both teams to score — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Charlotte Independence to win with 63% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 63.05%, 20.68% and 16.28%. The model momentum difference is 46.77 points in favour of Charlotte Independence. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.42 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.47%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Both Teams Score — Yes (odds 1.47). At least one goal in the match (quota 23, score 80/100, 80.18% group success rate across 671 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Charlotte Independence at home is based on 10 matches. The team averages 2.10 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.10 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 80.0%, 20.0%, 10.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 16 of 18 completed matches (88.9% coverage). The discipline profile for Portland Hearts of Pine away from home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 55.6%, 33.3%, 11.1% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 18 of 21 completed matches (85.7% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Charlotte Independence and Portland Hearts of Pine ended 3-2. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Charlotte Independence at home was based on 10 matches, with averages of 2.1 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.1 total cards per match. In this game, Charlotte Independence received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.1 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 20% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Portland Hearts of Pine away from home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, Portland Hearts of Pine received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. The total was effectively equal to the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 33.3% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was BTTS Yes at odds of 1.47. The actual market outcome was BTTS Yes. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 23. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 7 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 1 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.