Match context

The upcoming match between Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm is scheduled for 16.08.2026 12:00 in Allsvenskan. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Djurgardens IF are in position 4 with 26 points after 14 matches. The season record is 8 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses. The goals record is 33 scored and 15 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWWDW. AIK Stockholm are in position 6 with 25 points after 15 matches. The season record is 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 18 scored and 21 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLDWW.

Recent results

Djurgardens IF recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWWDWWDLLW. The averages are 2.20 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. AIK Stockholm recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLDWWWWLLW. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Djurgardens IF recorded 2 wins, there were 3 draws, and AIK Stockholm recorded 5 wins. The average total was 2.10 goals per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 20% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Djurgardens IF to win with 63% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 62.73%, 20.91% and 16.36%. The model momentum difference is 46.36 points in favour of Djurgardens IF. The input data quality score is 99/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.50 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.91%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Djurgardens IF -0.5 / AIK Stockholm +0.5 supports Djurgardens IF by an average 1.89 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, Unibet) with up to 7 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Djurgardens IF at home is based on 8 matches. The team averages 1.13 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.13 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 62.5%, 12.5%, 12.5%, 12.5% and 12.5% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 15 of 15 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for AIK Stockholm away from home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 2.67 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.67 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 88.9%, 77.8%, 44.4%, 33.3% and 11.1% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 16 of 16 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm ended 1-3. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.1 goals, while this match produced 4. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Djurgardens IF at home was based on 8 matches, with averages of 1.13 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.13 total cards per match. In this game, Djurgardens IF received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 0.13 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 12.5% of matches, 5+ in 12.5%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for AIK Stockholm away from home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 2.67 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.67 total cards per match. In this game, AIK Stockholm received 5 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 5 in total. That was 2.33 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 44.4% of matches, 5+ in 11.1%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Djurgardens IF at -0.5. The stored market movement was 1.89 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-3, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 3 aligned with the final result and 6 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.