Match context

The upcoming match between IF Elfsborg and Vasteras SK FK is scheduled for 14.08.2026 17:00 in Allsvenskan. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
IF Elfsborg are in position 6 with 24 points after 15 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses. The goals record is 20 scored and 18 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWLLL. Vasteras SK FK are in position 9 with 22 points after 15 matches. The season record is 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 24 scored and 29 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWDWW.

Recent results

IF Elfsborg recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWLLLDDDDW. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Vasteras SK FK recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLWDWWLLWD. The averages are 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 3 head-to-head matches, IF Elfsborg recorded 2 wins, there were 1 draws, and Vasteras SK FK recorded 0 wins. The average total was 2 goals per match. Both teams scored in 33.3% of those matches, while 33.3% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 50%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%; Under 2.5 goals — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 9.60; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as IF Elfsborg or draw (1X) with 80% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 56.53%, 23.60% and 19.87%. The model momentum difference is 36.65 points in favour of IF Elfsborg. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.18 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.45%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair IF Elfsborg 0 / Vasteras SK FK 0 supports IF Elfsborg by an average 5.45 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 32 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.22, score 77/100, 77.09% bucket win rate across 358 observations). Both Teams Score — Yes (odds 1.70).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for IF Elfsborg at home is based on 8 matches. The team averages 1.38 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.38 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 87.5%, 37.5%, 12.5%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 16 of 16 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Vasteras SK FK away from home is based on 8 matches. The team averages 1.75 yellow cards, 0.13 red cards and 1.88 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 87.5%, 50.0%, 37.5%, 12.5% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 12.5%. Season card data is available for 16 of 16 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between IF Elfsborg and Vasteras SK FK ended 3-0. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The verified final statistics recorded 6 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 3 head-to-head meetings averaged 2 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 9.6 total corners. The match recorded 6 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 7.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 8.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for IF Elfsborg at home was based on 8 matches, with averages of 1.38 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.38 total cards per match. In this game, IF Elfsborg received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 0.38 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 12.5% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Vasteras SK FK away from home was based on 8 matches, with averages of 1.75 yellow cards, 0.13 red cards and 1.88 total cards per match. In this game, Vasteras SK FK received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 1.12 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 37.5% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 12.5%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported IF Elfsborg at 0. The stored market movement was 5.45 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 3-0, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.22. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was BTTS Yes at odds of 1.7. The actual market outcome was BTTS No. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 14 verifiable pre-match indicators, 8 aligned with the final result and 6 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.