Match context

The upcoming match between AIK Stockholm and Hammarby FF is scheduled for 30.08.2026 12:00 in Allsvenskan. The listed venue is Strawberry Arena, Solna. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
AIK Stockholm are in position 6 with 28 points after 15 matches. The season record is 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 18 scored and 21 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWLDW. Hammarby FF are in position 2 with 36 points after 15 matches. The season record is 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses. The goals record is 33 scored and 15 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWDW.

Recent results

AIK Stockholm recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWLDWWWWL. The averages are 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. Hammarby FF recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWLWDLDDW. The averages are 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, AIK Stockholm recorded 3 wins, there were 3 draws, and Hammarby FF recorded 4 wins. The average total was 3.10 goals per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as draw or Hammarby FF (X2) with 80% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 19.88%, 21.81% and 58.30%. The model momentum difference is 38.42 points in favour of Hammarby FF. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.18 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.46%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair AIK Stockholm +0.5 / Hammarby FF -0.5 supports AIK Stockholm by an average 1.49 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, Unibet) with up to 8 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for AIK Stockholm at home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 2.43 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.43 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 85.7%, 85.7%, 57.1%, 14.3% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 17 of 17 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Hammarby FF away from home is based on 8 matches. The team averages 1.25 yellow cards, 0.13 red cards and 1.38 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 87.5%, 37.5%, 12.5%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 12.5%. Season card data is available for 18 of 18 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between AIK Stockholm and Hammarby FF ended 3-2. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.1 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for AIK Stockholm at home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 2.43 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.43 total cards per match. In this game, AIK Stockholm received 5 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 5 in total. That was 2.57 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 57.1% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Hammarby FF away from home was based on 8 matches, with averages of 1.25 yellow cards, 0.13 red cards and 1.38 total cards per match. In this game, Hammarby FF received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 0.38 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 12.5% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 12.5%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported AIK Stockholm at +0.5. The stored market movement was 1.49 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 3-2, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.