Match context

The upcoming match between Sirius and Degerfors IF is scheduled for 14.09.2026 17:00 in Allsvenskan. The listed venue is Studenternas IP, Uppsala. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Sirius are in position 1 with 45 points after 20 matches. The season record is 14 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses. The goals record is 48 scored and 27 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLLLD. Degerfors IF are in position 14 with 19 points after 20 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses. The goals record is 19 scored and 31 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLLWW.

Recent results

Sirius recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLWLLDWWWW. The averages are 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Degerfors IF recorded 4 wins, 0 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLLWWWLLLL. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Sirius recorded 6 wins, there were 3 draws, and Degerfors IF recorded 1 wins. The average total was 2.70 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Sirius to win with 66% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 65.86%, 20.78% and 13.36%. The model momentum difference is 52.50 points in favour of Sirius. The input data quality score is 98/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.42 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.48%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 17, score 82/100, 81.75% group success rate across 2345 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Sirius at home is based on 10 matches. The team averages 0.90 yellow cards, 0.10 red cards and 1.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 70.0%, 30.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 10.0%. Season card data is available for 20 of 20 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Degerfors IF away from home is based on 10 matches. The team averages 2.40 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.40 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 80.0%, 30.0%, 10.0% and 10.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 20 of 20 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Sirius and Degerfors IF ended 2-0. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.7 goals, while this match produced 2. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Sirius at home was based on 10 matches, with averages of 0.9 yellow cards, 0.1 red cards and 1 total cards per match. In this game, Sirius received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. The total was effectively equal to the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 10%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Degerfors IF away from home was based on 10 matches, with averages of 2.4 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.4 total cards per match. In this game, Degerfors IF received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.4 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 30% of matches, 5+ in 10%, and a red card in 0%.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 17. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.