Match context

The upcoming match between Molde and Sarpsborg 08 FF is scheduled for 02.08.2026 15:00 in Eliteserien. The listed venue is Aker Stadion, Molde. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Molde are in position 5 with 23 points after 14 matches. The season record is 7 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 25 scored and 19 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLDWL. Sarpsborg 08 FF are in position 6 with 21 points after 14 matches. The season record is 6 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 15 scored and 16 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDWWW.

Recent results

Molde recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLDLLWWLWL. The averages are 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDWWWLWLLL. The averages are 1 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Molde recorded 5 wins, there were 1 draws, and Sarpsborg 08 FF recorded 4 wins. The average total was 4.10 goals per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Both teams to score — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Molde or draw (1X) with 80% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 58.30%, 21.81% and 19.88%. The model momentum difference is 38.42 points in favour of Molde. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.18 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.46%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 21, score 85/100, 84.61% group success rate across 903 observations).

What happened in the match

The match between Molde and Sarpsborg 08 FF ended 3-3. The game produced 6 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 4.1 goals, while this match produced 6. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 21. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 8 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.