Match context

The upcoming match between Tromso and Sarpsborg 08 FF is scheduled for 30.08.2026 15:00 in Eliteserien. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Tromso are in position 3 with 34 points after 16 matches. The season record is 10 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 32 scored and 17 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWWWD. Sarpsborg 08 FF are in position 9 with 22 points after 15 matches. The season record is 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 18 scored and 19 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLDWD.

Recent results

Tromso recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWDLWWWLLW. The averages are 2.50 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLLDWDWWWL. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Tromso recorded 4 wins, there were 2 draws, and Sarpsborg 08 FF recorded 4 wins. The average total was 3.40 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 12.68; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Tromso or draw (1X) with 80% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 55.75%, 24.30% and 19.95%. The model momentum difference is 35.80 points in favour of Tromso. The input data quality score is 99/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.18 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.54%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Tromso -0.25 / Sarpsborg 08 FF +0.25 supports Sarpsborg 08 FF by an average 2.11 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 22 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Tromso at home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 0.89 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 0.89 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 55.6%, 22.2%, 11.1%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 17 of 17 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Sarpsborg 08 FF away from home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 1.67 yellow cards, 0.11 red cards and 1.78 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 88.9%, 55.6%, 11.1%, 11.1% and 11.1% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 11.1%. Season card data is available for 17 of 17 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Tromso and Sarpsborg 08 FF ended 0-0. The game produced 0 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 6 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.4 goals, while this match produced 0. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 12.68 total corners. The match recorded 6 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 7.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 8.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Tromso at home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 0.89 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 0.89 total cards per match. In this game, Tromso received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 1.11 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 11.1% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Sarpsborg 08 FF away from home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 1.67 yellow cards, 0.11 red cards and 1.78 total cards per match. In this game, Sarpsborg 08 FF received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 0.78 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 11.1% of matches, 5+ in 11.1%, and a red card in 11.1%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Sarpsborg 08 FF at +0.25. The stored market movement was 2.11 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 0-0, the line settled as a half win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Even. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 13 verifiable pre-match indicators, 3 aligned with the final result and 10 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.