Match context

The upcoming match between Viking and Aalesund is scheduled for 30.08.2026 15:00 in Eliteserien. The listed venue is Lyse Arena, Stavanger. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Viking are in position 2 with 40 points after 15 matches. The season record is 12 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 37 scored and 14 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWWDW. Aalesund are in position 15 with 15 points after 15 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 21 scored and 35 conceded. The stored form sequence is DDLDL.

Recent results

Viking recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDLWWDWWLD. The averages are 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. Aalesund recorded 2 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDDLDLDWDD. The averages are 3.10 goals scored and 2.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Viking recorded 5 wins, there were 3 draws, and Aalesund recorded 2 wins. The average total was 3.10 goals per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 100%; Over 1.5 goals — 100%; Both teams to score — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 80%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 60%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 12.60; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Viking to win with 75% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 74.66%, 14.36% and 10.98%. The model momentum difference is 63.68 points in favour of Viking. The input data quality score is 99/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.25 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.67%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Viking +0.25 / Aalesund -0.25 supports Aalesund by an average 1.97 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (Bet365) with up to 3 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 29, score 83/100, 83% group success rate across 447 observations). Odd/Even - First Half — Even (odds 1.85).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Viking at home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 2.14 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.14 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 85.7%, 28.6%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 17 of 17 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Aalesund away from home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 2.14 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.14 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 85.7%, 57.1%, 28.6%, 14.3% and 14.3% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 17 of 17 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Viking and Aalesund ended 2-1. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The verified final statistics recorded 16 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.1 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 12.6 total corners. The match recorded 16 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Viking at home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 2.14 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.14 total cards per match. In this game, Viking received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.14 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 28.6% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Aalesund away from home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 2.14 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.14 total cards per match. In this game, Aalesund received 4 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 4 in total. That was 1.86 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 28.6% of matches, 5+ in 14.3%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Aalesund at -0.25. The stored market movement was 1.97 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 2-1, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 29. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was Even HT goals at odds of 1.85. The actual market outcome was Odd HT goals. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 15 verifiable pre-match indicators, 11 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.