Match context

The upcoming match between Rosenborg and Tromso is scheduled for 12.09.2026 16:00 in Eliteserien. The listed venue is Lerkendal Stadion, Trondheim. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Rosenborg are in position 6 with 27 points after 15 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 losses. The goals record is 21 scored and 21 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLWWL. Tromso are in position 3 with 35 points after 16 matches. The season record is 10 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 32 scored and 17 conceded. The stored form sequence is LDLWW.

Recent results

Rosenborg recorded 7 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLWWWLWLWW. The averages are 3.10 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 90% finished with over 2.5 goals. Tromso recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDLWDLWWWL. The averages are 2.10 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Rosenborg recorded 4 wins, there were 1 draws, and Tromso recorded 5 wins. The average total was 3.30 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 3.5 goals — 60%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 40%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 11.08; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Rosenborg or draw (1X) with 81% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 57.04%, 24.13% and 18.82%. The model momentum difference is 38.22 points in favour of Rosenborg. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.17 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.02%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Rosenborg -0.25 / Tromso +0.25 supports Rosenborg by an average 4.12 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 36 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Rosenborg at home is based on 10 matches. The team averages 1.20 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.20 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 70.0%, 40.0%, 10.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 19 of 19 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Tromso away from home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 1.44 yellow cards, 0.11 red cards and 1.56 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 88.9%, 44.4%, 22.2%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 11.1%. Season card data is available for 19 of 19 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Rosenborg and Tromso ended 5-3. The game produced 8 goals in total. The first half contained 4 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 8 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.3 goals, while this match produced 8. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 11.08 total corners. The match recorded 8 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 8.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Rosenborg at home was based on 10 matches, with averages of 1.2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.2 total cards per match. In this game, Rosenborg received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.8 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 10% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Tromso away from home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 1.44 yellow cards, 0.11 red cards and 1.56 total cards per match. In this game, Tromso received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 1.44 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 22.2% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 11.1%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Rosenborg at -0.25. The stored market movement was 4.12 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 5-3, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 14 verifiable pre-match indicators, 8 aligned with the final result and 6 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.