Match context

The upcoming match between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK is scheduled for 01.11.2026 16:00 in Eliteserien. The listed venue is Sarpsborg Stadion, Sarpsborg. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Sarpsborg 08 FF are in position 7 with 31 points after 24 matches. The season record is 8 wins, 7 draws and 9 losses. The goals record is 30 scored and 35 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLWLD. Kristiansund BK are in position 15 with 20 points after 24 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 5 draws and 14 losses. The goals record is 25 scored and 49 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLLLL.

Recent results

Sarpsborg 08 FF recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWLWWLDDDW. The averages are 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Kristiansund BK recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDLLLLWLWD. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 2.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF recorded 3 wins, there were 3 draws, and Kristiansund BK recorded 4 wins. The average total was 2.20 goals per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 100%; Over 1.5 goals — 100%; Over 2.5 goals — 90%; Both teams to score — 70%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 60%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 13.30; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Sarpsborg 08 FF to win with 63% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 62.73%, 20.91% and 16.36%. The model momentum difference is 46.36 points in favour of Sarpsborg 08 FF. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.50 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.91%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Sarpsborg 08 FF -1 / Kristiansund BK +1 supports Sarpsborg 08 FF by an average 1.86 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 5 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Sarpsborg 08 FF at home is based on 12 matches. The team averages 1.33 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.33 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 75.0%, 33.3%, 16.7%, 8.3% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 24 of 24 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Kristiansund BK away from home is based on 12 matches. The team averages 1.92 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.92 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 25.0%, 8.3% and 8.3% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 24 of 24 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK ended 2-4. The game produced 6 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 11 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.2 goals, while this match produced 6. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 13.3 total corners. The match recorded 11 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Sarpsborg 08 FF at home was based on 12 matches, with averages of 1.33 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.33 total cards per match. In this game, Sarpsborg 08 FF received 2 yellow cards and 1 red cards, 3 in total. That was 1.67 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 16.7% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Kristiansund BK away from home was based on 12 matches, with averages of 1.92 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.92 total cards per match. In this game, Kristiansund BK received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.08 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 25% of matches, 5+ in 8.3%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Sarpsborg 08 FF at -1. The stored market movement was 1.86 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 2-4, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 14 verifiable pre-match indicators, 9 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.