Match context

The upcoming match between Stabæk W and Lillestrøm W is scheduled for 13.09.2026 11:00 in Toppserien. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Stabæk W are in position 5 with 21 points after 14 matches. The season record is 6 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 26 scored and 14 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDLWW. Lillestrøm W are in position 8 with 15 points after 14 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 3 draws and 7 losses. The goals record is 19 scored and 23 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLLDL.

Recent results

Stabæk W recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDLWWWLLWL. The averages are 2.10 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. Lillestrøm W recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLLDLWWLWW. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Stabæk W recorded 2 wins, there were 2 draws, and Lillestrøm W recorded 6 wins. The average total was 3 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Stabæk W to win with 62% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 61.67%, 21.29% and 17.03%. The model momentum difference is 44.64 points in favour of Stabæk W. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.45 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.57%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Stabæk W 0 / Lillestrøm W 0 supports Lillestrøm W by an average 1.06 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 2 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

What happened in the match

The match between Stabæk W and Lillestrøm W ended 5-1. The game produced 6 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3 goals, while this match produced 6. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Lillestrøm W at 0. The stored market movement was 1.06 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 5-1, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.