Match context

The upcoming match between Malmö FF W and AIK is scheduled for 17.10.2026 12:00 in Damallsvenskan. The listed venue is Eleda Stadion, Malmö. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Malmö FF W recorded 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWLWWWDWWD. The averages are 2.10 goals scored and 0.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. AIK recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWWWWDLLLW. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 3 head-to-head matches, Malmö FF W recorded 2 wins, there were 1 draws, and AIK recorded 0 wins. The average total was 3.67 goals per match. Both teams scored in 66.7% of those matches, while 66.7% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 10.30; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Malmö FF W to win with 62% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 61.66%, 22.20% and 16.14%. The model momentum difference is 45.52 points in favour of Malmö FF W. The input data quality score is 92/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.44 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -11.21%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Malmö FF W 0 / AIK 0 supports Malmö FF W by an average 4.00 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 4 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Malmö FF W at home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 0.89 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 0.89 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 77.8%, 11.1%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 17 of 21 completed matches (81.0% coverage). The discipline profile for AIK away from home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 1.43 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.43 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 85.7%, 57.1%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 16 of 21 completed matches (76.2% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Malmö FF W and AIK ended 3-2. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 4 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 7 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 3 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.67 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 10.3 total corners. The match recorded 7 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 7.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 8.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Malmö FF W at home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 0.89 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 0.89 total cards per match. In this game, Malmö FF W received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 1.11 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for AIK away from home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 1.43 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.43 total cards per match. In this game, AIK received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 0.43 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Malmö FF W at 0. The stored market movement was 4 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 3-2, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 14 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 7 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.