Match context

The upcoming match between Ilves and Mariehamn is scheduled for 09.08.2026 15:00 in Veikkausliiga. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Ilves are in position 9 with 22 points after 18 matches. The season record is 6 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses. The goals record is 29 scored and 31 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWWLD. Mariehamn are in position 12 with 5 points after 18 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 5 draws and 13 losses. The goals record is 9 scored and 39 conceded. The stored form sequence is LDLLL.

Recent results

Ilves recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLWWLWWDLL. The averages are 1 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Mariehamn recorded 0 wins, 1 draws and 9 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDLLLLLLLL. The averages are 0.40 goals scored and 2.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Ilves recorded 5 wins, there were 3 draws, and Mariehamn recorded 2 wins. The average total was 3.10 goals per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%; Under 2.5 goals — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 8.90; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 94%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Ilves to win with 70% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 69.77%, 17.28% and 12.96%. The model momentum difference is 56.81 points in favour of Ilves. The input data quality score is 95/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.30 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.30%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Ilves +0.25 / Mariehamn -0.25 supports Mariehamn by an average 1.10 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (Bet365) with up to 3 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 21, score 85/100, 84.53% group success rate across 944 observations).

What happened in the match

The match between Ilves and Mariehamn ended 2-0. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.1 goals, while this match produced 2. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Mariehamn at -0.25. The stored market movement was 1.1 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 2-0, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 21. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.